Executive Summary

Q1 2025 was strong operationally: Burford-only total revenues were $111.3M, net income $30.9M, and EPS $0.14, versus Q4 2024 Burford-only revenues $65.7M and EPS $(0.06); YoY comparison vs Q1 2024 shows sharp improvement from $31.4M revenues and $(0.14) EPS .
Against S&P Global consensus, Q1 2025 was a miss: EPS $0.14 vs $0.30*, and revenue $112.8M vs $157.0M*; Q3 2024 was a beat while Q4 2024 was a material miss* (see Estimates Context) (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
Portfolio activity accelerated: realizations $163M, definitive new commitments $158M, deployments $130M, cash receipts $258M, liquidity $548M; TBVPS rose to $10.54 and book value/share to $11.15 .
YPF-related assets remained a major strategic asset (fair value ~$1.5B Burford-only) and Burford’s Eton Park share increased to ~82%, enhancing the entitlement; appeal is pending at the Second Circuit .
No formal quantitative guidance; management emphasized uncorrelated performance, cash generation, and long-term portfolio realization focus .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Capital provision income of $91M (+5x YoY) and Asset Management income of $14M (+107% YoY), driving Burford-only total revenues to $111.3M; EPS turned positive to $0.14 from $(0.14) YoY .
Realizations momentum with $163M in Q1 and cash receipts of $258M; liquidity increased to $548M, positioning Burford well for new business and the August 2025 maturity .
New business: definitive new commitments of $158M (tripled vs 1Q24), including launch of a new U.S. claims family; diversified portfolio by geography and asset type .
“Burford delivered robust first quarter results…continued momentum of our portfolio…uncorrelated nature of legal finance” – CEO Christopher Bogart .

What Went Wrong

Operating expenses rose to $39.5M (vs $29.7M YoY), driven by higher long-term incentive compensation accruals tied to higher capital provision income, plus higher G&A and episodic case-related expenditures .
Q1 2025 revenue and EPS missed consensus expectations; Q4 2024 had a material miss versus consensus as well (see Estimates Context)* (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
Internal control material weakness (precision of management review controls over fair value assumptions) disclosed for FY24 remained unremediated as of year-end 2024; remediation ongoing in 2025 .

Financial Results

Consolidated and Burford-only Performance vs Prior Periods

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Burford-only Total Revenues ($USD Thousands)	226,033	65,692	111,301
Net Income attributable to Burford ($USD Thousands)	135,643	(12,968)	30,929
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$0.61	$(0.06)	$0.14

Notes: Burford emphasizes Burford-only reporting (Total Segments) for shareholder economics .

Segment Breakdown (Burford-only)

Segment	Q1 2025 Revenues ($USD Thousands)	Key Components
Principal Finance	97,650	Capital provision income $90,950; Net realized gains $34,584; Unrealized gains $50,765; Other income $6,700
Asset Management & Other Services	13,651	Asset management income $13,837 driven by $4.4M performance fee crystallization and $7.9M BOF-C profit-share; Other income $(186)

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPI / Measure	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Realizations ($USD Thousands, Burford-only)	168,416	253,425	163,148
Cash Receipts ($USD Thousands, Burford-only)	310,491	143,599	257,716
Deployments ($USD Thousands, Burford-only)	73,840	126,261	129,911
Definitive New Commitments ($USD Millions)	100.9	194	158
Liquidity (Cash + Marketable Securities) ($USD Millions)	628.96	521	548
Due from Settlement ($USD Thousands)	64,489	183,651	102,648
Debt Payable ($USD Thousands)	1,763,612	1,763,612	1,764,726
Book Value / Share ($USD)	11.08	11.03	11.15
TBVPS ($USD)	10.47	10.42	10.54

YPF-related assets fair value (Burford-only): ~$1.5B at 3/31/25 .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue	FY25 / Q2+	None provided	None provided	Maintained (no formal guidance)
EPS	FY25 / Q2+	None provided	None provided	Maintained (no formal guidance)
Asset Management Income	FY25	None provided	None provided	Maintained (no formal guidance)
Debt / Liquidity	2025 maturities	Informational only	$123M due Aug-2025; ample liquidity; some open market purchases	Update (status)
Dividend	FY24 final	$0.0625 declared Feb-28, 2025; paid June 13, 2025 (subject to approval)	Paid per timetable	Implemented

Burford does not issue quantitative quarterly or annual revenue/EPS guidance; management focuses on portfolio realizations and cash generation .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Portfolio momentum & cash generation	Record cash receipts $310M; strong net realized gains; diversified realizations	Record FY realizations $641M; net realized gains up 75% YoY; discount rate volatility explained	Realizations $163M; cash receipts $258M; liquidity $548M	Sustained strength
New business pipeline	New commitments up; definitive undrawn commitments $727M	Emphasis on “target realizations” vs raw deployments	$158M new definitive commitments; launch of new U.S. claim family	Improving mix, larger families
YPF litigation	Ongoing enforcement; judgment details reiterated	Appeal pending; enforcement continuing; portfolio share context	Appeal pending; Eton Park share ~82% (from ~73%); fair value ~$1.5B	Incremental entitlement; litigation timeline
Macro/tariffs	Not a headwind; uncorrelated performance	Discount rate volatility; macro liquidity addressed	“We do not believe escalation of global tariffs will impact performance”	Neutral
Controls & disclosure	Transition to US domestic filer; enhanced segments	Material weakness not fully remediated yet; remediation underway	No new issues discussed on Q1 call	Remediation ongoing
Asset Management income	BOF-C a driver; fee recognition mechanics [24]	Lower FY24 vs FY23; cash receipts context	Asset mgmt income doubled YoY; performance fee crystallization	Improving near-term

Management Commentary

CEO: “Burford delivered robust first quarter results…both new business and realization activity were well above first quarter levels in recent years…uncorrelated nature of legal finance positions our business to perform through the volatile and uncertain market environment” .
CIO: “After a post-COVID period…we now have seen in successive quarters the portfolio performing…a stretch where the portfolio really is performing” .
CFO: “$0.14 per share…main driver [vs last year] is realized gains as well as unrealized gains…Asset Management income was $14M versus $7M quarter-over-quarter” .
CEO on macro: “We are one of the few companies that actually enjoys the kind of period we’re seeing out there…our business is really built to deal with adversity” .

Q&A Highlights

IMF program and YPF: IMF requires good-faith engagement on outstanding litigation debts; not a hard disbursement condition, but must work to resolve (context for Argentina) .
New commitments risk bands: Mix shifted due to launch of a large U.S. claims family and portfolio approach; lower modeled risk reflected in bands .
YPF valuation uplift: Increased Eton Park share (~82%) drove uplift; purchases around carrying value; consolidation impact mainly in GAAP but economics improved .
Portfolio growth vs high realizations: In high realization quarters, portfolio may not grow much; long-term goal remains expanding while monetizing .
Regulatory backdrop: No material concerns from US administration; litigation finance acceptance focused on disclosure, not existential issues .

Estimates Context

Period	Metric	Consensus*	Actual	Result
Q1 2025	Primary EPS Consensus Mean	$0.30*	$0.14	Miss*
Q1 2025	Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)	$157.0M*	$112.8M*	Miss*
Q4 2024	Primary EPS Consensus Mean	$0.59*	$(0.06)	Miss*
Q4 2024	Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)	$219.4M*	$110.6M*	Miss*
Q3 2024	Primary EPS Consensus Mean	$0.30*	$0.61	Beat*
Q3 2024	Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)	$137.0M*	$244.9M*	Beat*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Note: Actuals for revenue reflect reported totals mapped to consensus definitions; Burford emphasizes Burford-only (Total Segments) economics in disclosure .

Implications: Q1 2025 print likely drives downward revisions to near-term EPS/revenue estimates; management’s longer-term realization cadence and cash metrics suggest focusing on multi-quarter trends rather than single-quarter variance .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Focus on cash generation and realization cadence: Q1 2025 cash receipts ($258M) and realizations ($163M) underscore sustained momentum; liquidity at $548M supports deployment and the August 2025 maturity .
Short-term trading: Headline misses vs consensus may pressure near-term sentiment; watch for any follow-on estimate revisions and catalysts from YPF appellate timing (oral argument date) .
Medium-term thesis: Rising entitlement in YPF (Eton Park to ~82%), fair value ~$1.5B Burford-only, remains an asymmetric potential outcome; timing uncertain but enforcement underway .
New business quality: $158M definitive commitments and a new U.S. claims family add to a diversified pipeline; management is prioritizing “target realizations” (risk-adjusted returns) over raw deployment volume .
Expense normalization: Elevated LTIP accruals linked to higher capital provision income; G&A increase includes non-recurring items; monitor operating expense trend through 2025 .
Capital structure: Leverage at ~0.8x net tangible equity and ample cash indicate flexibility; continued open-market purchases of 2025 bonds demonstrate proactive liability management .
Macro resilience: Management reiterates the uncorrelated nature of legal finance and minimal tariff impact; cyclical stress can create more disputes and demand for Burford’s solutions .

Burford Capital Ltd (BUR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary